January 8th, 2025 HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!
If you are like me, you feel 100% responsible for the outcome
Here we are 2025! It is time to plan trips for the new year. The 3 Amigos are planning to get back together in Victor this summer. As you would expect, in previous trips we have had good days and bad days. All in all our trips have been great! And I want our next trip to be the best! You might think, what’s the big deal, throw some dates on the calendar at a fishy time of year and hope for the best.
But, there are a lot of factors. Moon phase for instance. Full moons can disrupt daytime feeding cycles of trout. Bugs like caddis that may hatch at night become an easy pray on a clear night with a full moon. On the Henry’s Fork, water temps regularly rise above 68 degrees during the heat of the day and stress the fish. Warm water reduces the oxygen level. It makes the fish lethargic and if they do eat, you are more likely to kill them as you land them, as they are very stressed!
Timing Hatches
Like most anglers, us Amigos prefer dry fly fishing and timing the hatches can be tricky as there are a number of factors that determine when the fish hatch. The right water temp is the best predictor. A warm spring could make the BWOs hatch early, a cool spring, the opposite effect. When it comes to mayflies, they prefer to hatch on cloudy days and it is in their genetic code. Over millions of years, their survival rates have proven higher when they hatch on cloudy days.
Streamflows
In Southeast Idaho and southwest Wyoming, we have tailwaters where the flow rate is governed by a dam, the Henry’s Fork and the South Fork are excellent examples. That said, flows are still susceptible to run-off conditions but not to the same extent. Then you have freestone streams where the flows are completely unregulated. The Teton in Idaho, the Greys in Wyoming are excellent examples of this. There is also a hybrid effect on some rivers, take for example the Henry’s Fork which is dam controlled in a few spots, but big tributaries flow in like the Warm River and the Fall River. Several big tributaries flow into the Snake in Wyoming making it behave more like a freestone. In timing this upcoming trip, I am taking into account peak run-offs and looking to be on the back side of that, hoping to get on the Teton after it settles down.
Putting it all together
Balancing moon phase, hatch timing, water temps and streamflows, taking into account run-off timing and duration requires extensive research to try and predict the best possible outcome. Run-off is tricky. The timing and intensity is governed by two things: snowpack and spring temps. A great example is, last June we had several sunny days in the mid-80s in June. Normal highs in June are in the seventies and if you have several cloudy days, that further slows the melt. As a result, last years run-off was super intense, peaking over ten days and driving super high streamflows in a year where snowpack was just above normal. In drought years, the run-off curve tends to be flatter and less intense.
All of this, led us to a trip scheduled for late June and I really feel great about this decision!
